Human Costs:

The AIDS Pandemic has now killed an estimated 15 million men, women and children. In addition, an estimated 30 million men, women and children are now dying of the disease.

In South Africa, the epicenter of the AIDS Pandemic, close to 7 million child bearing men and women between the ages of 15 and 49 are infected. Most babies born to AIDS-infected mothers become AIDS-infected babies from the time of their birth. Many of South Africa’s 1,100,000 AIDS orphans are now dying from the same disease that killed their parents.

The AIDS Pandemic continues to escalate. Each and every month over 250,000 men, women and children die from AIDS. It is anticipated that in excess of 3 million will die from AIDS this year. When both parents die, the oldest child takes over as the head of the family.

The life expectancy of an AIDS-infected baby is less than eight years. Thus, when the oldest child dies, the next oldest child becomes the head of the family. It is not unusual to see 8 and 9-year old children being heads of families. Imagine being 8 or 9-years old and dying of AIDS yourself, yet you cannot rest because you are responsible for providing the food, clothing and shelter for 3 to 4 younger brothers and sisters.

Slowly dying AIDS babies, toddlers and children also suffer greatly in horrific living conditions. An 8 or 9-year old child cannot provide much, thus many young AIDS orphans live in tin shacks without running water, floors or electricity. There is little food for AIDS orphans and many do not even have shoes to wear, or a blanket to warm them on winter nights.

Many AIDS orphans are unable to receive the energy of Love, but will know the energy of anger.
AIDS orphans who survive and grow up in subhuman conditions, will be intolerant of other people.
AIDS orphans who survive growing up in subhuman conditions, will be angry, unproductive adults.
AIDS orphans who survive will become prime recruits for subhuman terrorist type organizations.

Financial Impact Studies by WHO and World Bank:

An expensive and well researched report by the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health (WHO, 2001) came to an obvious conclusion: “Widespread diseases are a formidable barrier to economic growth”.

Studies undertaken by the World Bank found that South Africa's gross domestic product is currently 10 percent lower than it would have been in a "no-AIDS" scenario. About half of this decline is attributed to shifts in current government spending toward health expenditures, thereby increasing the budget deficit and reducing total investment. The other half is due to slower productivity growth directly attributable to the AIDS disease.

Most existing estimates of the macroeconomic costs of AIDS, as measured by the reduction in the growth rate of GDP, are modest but few estimates truly study the long term effects. By killing off mainly young adults, AIDS also seriously weakens the tax base, and so reduces the resources available to meet the demands for public expenditures, including those aimed at accumulating human capital, such as education and health services not related to AIDS. Thus, for any given level of fiscal effort, the effects of the disease on economic growth over the longer run are intensified through this channel. As a result, the government’s finances will come under increasing pressure. Slower growth of the economy means slower growth of the tax base, an effect that will be reinforced if there are growing expenditures on treating the sick and caring for orphans.

Human capital can be described as the entire stock of knowledge and abilities (general and specific) embodied in the population. The accumulation of human capital is the force that generates economic growth over the very long run. When the economy is studied on how it works in relation to the transmission of knowledge and abilities from one generation to the next, then the long-run economic costs of AIDS are almost certain to be much higher than expected.

AIDS does more than destroy the human capital embodied in its victim; it also deprives their children of those very things they need to become economically productive adults – their parents’ loving care, knowledge and capacity to finance education. As the children of AIDS victims become adults with little education and limited knowledge received from their parents, they are in turn less able to raise their own children and to invest in their education. A vicious cycle ensues. This weakening of the means through which human capital is transmitted and accumulated across generations becomes apparent only after a long lag, and it is progressively cumulative in its effects. If nothing is done, this leads to certain economic and social instability.